Learn from FiveThirtyEight's. The top two teams qualify for next season’s CAF Champions League. Jay Boice was a computational journalist for FiveThirtyEight. Sure. They force us (and you) to think about the world probabilistically, rather than in absolutes. The Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks (54. St. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. The 2019 NBA Draft Class Is Short (By Basketball Standards) FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. The model is based on FiveThirtyEight ‘s RAPTOR. Oklahoma City is a slim favorite at 52 percent, by virtue of. Bucks. Among players who were issued a forecast and played 1,500 NBA minutes in 2015-16. Standings. See odds, expert picks and TV Schedule for Game 3 of the 2023 Stanley Cup Final. 13, 2023, at 10:58 PM FiveThirtyEight lists their predictions for the entire NBA season to date. Stats. +2. Once the total line is created our over under pick model springs into action. According to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight NBA predictions, the Jaylen Brown-less Celtics have a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs by either (a) winning the (7)-(8) game or (b) losing the (7)-(8) game and winning against the victor of the (9)-(10) game. And making predictions, whether we’re modeling a candidate’s chance of being elected or a team’s odds of making the playoffs, improves our understanding of the world by. Early in May, a week after giving the Celtics a 39 per cent chance of winning the championship, FiveThirtyEight panicked and cut Boston’s chances to 18 per cent, which was half of what it gave to the Phoenix Suns. Filed under NBA. UPDATE (Oct. The bottom two teams are relegated. 9, 2023 11:45 p. Puka Nacua has over 800 receiving yards. Category 1: two-way guys who are pluses on both ends (Quickley, White) or elite defenders who are average offensively (the rest). -3. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections. Conf. 2, 2021, at 11:36 PM. 32%. m. Filed under NBA (1152 posts) NBA Playoffs (281) RAPTOR (57) Dallas Mavericks (35) NBA Predictions (26) Luka Doncic (17)FiveThirtyEight also has the Suns finished as the fourth-seed in the West with a 46-36 record, which means we'd get a seven-game series featuring the offensive fireworks we witnessed at American. The ratings are then turned into win probabilities for each game on the schedule, and the rest of the season is simulated 5,000 times to track who is most likely to win the NBA championship. Across the league this season, a half-court touch with eight or more dribbles results in 0. C. In anticipation of the masters, Neil examines Tiger Woods’s. r/nba • [FiveThirtyEight] Everyone’s A Favorite In Our 2022-23 NBA Forecast. +1. 7 percent, good for third-best in the NBA, and you have arguably the most quietly lethal offensive season of the modern era: JokiÄÐ â ¡ is in a low-usage. Their forecast, based on RAPTOR player ratings, has the Celtics tied with the Los Angeles Clippers as the fifth-most likely team to win the NBA title with 7% odds. The Bulls beat the Heat by six points Saturday, halting the Heat's seven-game win streak and ending. Design and development by Jay Boice. 915 OPS in Triple-A last season and is Baseball America’s No. 1 For the season, the Knicks still boast the league’s fifth-best offense and. View the 2023-24 NBA power index on ESPN. 0. In the most recent update of its NBA predictions, FiveThirtyEight lists the Celtics as the team most likely to win the NBA Finals this season. Aug. 5) are currently tied for the highest projection in the league, while oddsmakers have pegged the Washington. Ditto Paul George and Kawhi Leonard of the Clippers ranking among this season’s best duos. Team. It’s usually a special. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. The Brooklyn Nets (18 percent), L. I used these predictions to create a dataset where each row shows the RAPTOR spread, Elo spread, and actual result for one NBA game. Nate Silver@natesilver538. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks, beating over 92% of all CBS Sports brackets two of the last four tournaments. The Reasons It Happened Are Here To. Luckily, though, the Plexiglas effect doesn’t seem to be as strong in the NBA as it is in other sports. Men’s team ratings. $11. 6. The top nine teams from each conference — 18 teams total — make the MLS playoffs. This is probably not what people were expecting in several cases so I thought I'd see what we think about this. This is pretty remarkable if you remember that the. FiveThirtyEight have published their predictions for the 2022-23 NBA season, which tips the Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets to reach the finals. 14, 2023, at 6:00 AM. The 1969-70 season was a great one for New York basketball. Point spread: Steelers (+2. jackson: I don’t have any flop predictions tho. Standings Games Teams. FiveThirtyEight. off. But this prediction isn't presupposing they'll win a first-round playoff series against Milwaukee, Boston or Philadelphia. The Brooklyn Nets (39-29) and Oklahoma City Thunder (33-35) meet Tuesday at Paycom Center. Dividing that figure by 1,230 means that a single win was valued at $2,949,908. FiveThirtyEight’s men’s and women’s NCAA Tournament forecasting models calculate the chance of each team reaching each round. 208) was the most. Here’s what it looks like: No NBA team was more disappointing this season than the Los Angeles Lakers. FiveThirtyEight. 5) This is a tough pick as the injury status for Antetokounmpo went from doubtful to playing to out in Game 2. Updated Nov. From those predictions, FiveThirtyEight’s model runs simulations to play out the remaining league season 20,000 times to calculate an overall predicted final league table. +1. FiveThirtyEight's prediction model still doesn't like their chances. Design and development by Jay Boice, Reuben Fischer-Baum and. Their forecast, based on RAPTOR player ratings, has the Celtics tied with the Los Angeles Clippers as the fifth-most likely team to win the NBA title with 7% odds. Download this data. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. The basics of CARMELO are the same as last year . 2,313. NBA previews, picks, predictions for all 30 teams in 2023-24 season. Filed under 2014 NBA Preview. Filed under NBA. 4. dubin: Smart vs. 2023 NFL Predictions: Super Bowl LVIII, Playoff Picks, Award Winners and More From MMQB Staff. Projected Seeding W-L: 3-5; 42-31 (6th in East) COVID-19: Malcolm Brogdon ( cleared to. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. RAPTOR is an advanced metric introduced by FiveThirtyEight in 2019, and functions as a smart plus-minus statistic, which takes. only to have Brad Stevens laugh in the face of the predictions like. Fivethirtyeight is special and goes deep with theire sports calculations. The ratings are then turned into win probabilities for each game on the schedule, and the rest of the season is simulated 5,000 times to track who is most likely. Design and development by Jay Boice. 8 Arkansas and No. Compare the team ratings, game metrics and win probabilities of the top contenders and sleepers, and learn how the forecasts are calculated and updated. San Francisco’s Elo average from 1981 to. Kyle Wagner: (sports editor): So FiveThirtyEight has U. During the streak, New York singed the nets to the tune of 124. Starter: This bucket includes solid players like Shane Battier and Kyle Lowry (about 10 per class. 7 contenders, with a high of eight reached in both 2007-08 and 2020-21. The complete history of the NBA 112. Round-by-round probabilities. sometimes the best comparison for a football game in 2023 is an NBA game from the 1990s. Standings. First, we answer the call put out by Shannon Sharpe on Fox Sports’ “Undisputed. But Boston's excellent recent play isn't just getting noticed by our eyeballs. Mar. He got all the picks he could ever want and our team somehow is still projected to be a 50 win squad. The Trail Blazers' Damian Lillard, left, is entering his 12th season in the NBA, and the 76ers. It is also on a 17-6 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season. Ahead of today’s Game 1 of the NBA Finals, let’s get one thing out of the way: Our forecast model loves, loves, loves the Boston Celtics. Download this data. Filed under NBA MVP. Oct 14, 2022Find out how FiveThirtyEight and ESPN's 2022-23 NBA forecasts agree and disagree on various topics, such as the Celtics, the Lakers, the Bucks and the Warriors. When Lopez plays, Milwaukee opponents score just 106. (LeBron’s playoff performance that year was. UPDATED Jun. Mar. 2022-23 NBA Predictions By Jay Boice, Neil Paine and Nate. The similarity score is an index measuring how comparable one player is to another, scaled such that a score of zero is average similarity and 100 is the. Dickinson 16 TXSO √ 11 Pittsburgh 11 Miss. When Lopez plays, Milwaukee opponents score just 106. Including…Regular season NBA action is back! And with its return comes a non-negotiable, certifiably fun-as-hell obligation: the delivery of one prediction for every…Still, just as the cleverest offensive sets don’t mean much without a star player to initiate them, even the most tied-together defense doesn’t send NBA teams back to 90s-era clankery without. 2026. Sixers star Joel Embiid is having an MVP-caliber season, and according to FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR ratings, Embiid is one of the most well-rounded and impactful players in the league on each end of the court. State √ 11 Arizona St. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. The model in question, FiveThirtyEight’s 2021-22 NBA predictions, is updated after every game. Yes, you read that correctly. So with the restart schedule released late last week, we’ve relaunched our FiveThirtyEight NBA prediction model to forecast the mini-regular season finale, the play-in scenarios and, of course. 182), suggesting RAPTOR is slightly more prognostic. Version History. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. Category 2: guys who are good on offense but give back most of that value on defense, ergo net neutral players. Which team will improve the most in free agency? Which team has the most at stake? And where will players such as Breanna Stewart, Candace Parker. FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. 3. For the second consecutive season, the Brooklyn Nets made a league-shaking deal at the NBA trade deadline. FiveThirtyEight's 2020 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl. 11, 2019. I've seen the FiveThirtyEight NBA Projections get a lot of hate, especially for their Warriors prediction, but it really doesn't make sense to pick and choose teams when evaluating a model's performance. Forecast: How this works ». 2, 2021, at 11:36 PM 2021 MLB Predictions Download this data. More. Statistically, his Elo model for NFL is probably the best freely available one you'll find. Preseason predicted standings for the NBA’s 2022-23 Western Conference, according to. 62. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. Luka Dončić and LeBron James have been among the league’s most prolific stat-producers so far this season. State √ 11 Arizona St. (Or maybe it just hates the Golden State Warriors. The favorites: Obviously, the Warriors are big favorites to win the West for a fifth straight season, with a 61 percent chance of returning to the NBA Finals yet again. Standings Games PitchersDuring that stretch, Harden’s shot attempts fell off and his scoring average dropped to 19. FiveThirtyEight's MLB forecast uses a pitcher-adjusted Elo model to project the winner of every game and the chances that each team will win the World Series. Design and development by Jay Boice, Reuben Fischer-Baum and Julia Wolfe. Last season, 538 predicted Warriors 37-45,. 2. But while the regular season was careening toward a dramatic. Their ongoing NBA predictions have the Lakers at a 40% chance to move on. I use urllib2 to get the html for the page and BeautifulSoup to turn the html into a nice structure. The computers at 538 are up and running and have made their first predictions for the season. √ 16 F. 5 over Chicago Bulls . FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. Statistical models by Jay Boice and Nate Silver. Design and development by Jay Boice, Reuben Fischer-Baum and Julia Wolfe. The Lakers are 11-1 in the latest 2024 NBA Finals odds, sitting well behind the top tier of 2023-24 NBA contenders. The NBA economy is constantly evolving. FiveThirtyEight is one of the best in the sports business industry at constructing realistic prediction models across all major sports. The Boston Celtics currently boast the third-best offensive rating in NBA history, 1 and like so many teams in the new, high-scoring NBA, they do it in part by overloading the floor with shooting. That’s a pretty good list! Nic Batum, for instance, was coming off of a down year by the conventional metrics. Round-by-round probabilities. 747 votes, 118 comments. Apr. Throw in a true-shooting mark of 68. . +1. The Nets covered the spread as 9-point underdogs Sunday in a 122-120. 27, 2012 — via one of the most second-guessed trades in NBA history — he instantly transformed the Rockets into a. 39-26, 6th in East, 14 games back. 1 overall pick Aliyah Boston could change the recent fortunes of the Indiana Fever. Preseason predicted standings for the NBA’s 2021-22 Eastern Conference, according to FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR-based forecast Teams finishing in seventh through 10th place (indicated by black. NBA insiders chime in on the biggest 2023-24 preseason questions, including best contenders to take on the Nuggets and which star players will make their next move. The biggest winner from this change has to be the Los Angeles Clippers, whose odds of winning the NBA title have risen from a paltry 5 percent in our way-too-early summer. 28 and hit an Elo rating of 1712 — the highest in franchise history. 2 — and presumably has a number of good years left in the tank, especially if he plays into. The Nuggets had the best record (53-29) in the Western Conference last season then dominated the postseason, posting a 16-4 record on their way to a championship. For most players, holding the ball and dribbling for long periods of time does not lead to points. FiveThirtyEight: 50-32; Caesars: 56. Next >. Our traditional model uses Elo ratings (a measure of strength based on head-to-head results and quality of opponent) to calculate teams’ chances of winning their regular-season games and advancing to and through the. Oct. Players. Statistical model by Nate Silver, Jay Boice and Neil Paine. But. , the furthest 15-foot stretch of the court from the goal), we considered that utilizing “deep backcourt” pressure. Stats. Plus, MVPs, coaches and rookies. We’ve run projections for 485. South Midwest East West 1ST ROUND 1ST ROUND 2ND ROUND 2ND ROUND SWEET 16 SWEET 16 ELITE EIGHT ELITE EIGHT FINAL FOUR FINAL FOUR CHAMPIONSHIP 16 TX A&M-CC 16 SE Mo. 2: “Refs aren’t held accountable for errors!”. 5. 7 percent, good for third-best in the NBA, and you have arguably the most quietly lethal offensive season of the modern era: JokiÄÐ â ¡ is in a low-usage. L. 2. 11 Nevada √ 100% CHANCE OF WINNING TOURNAMENT UConn 4 Miami 5. 1 day ago · Editor's Picks. 5 games back. Updated Nov. For example, when FiveThirtyEight gave a team a 90% chance of winning, that team won 90. However, I am having a lot of trouble getting the html. It's just saying they'll get there—something FiveThirtyEight projects. The two-time reigning MVP is now a pretty heavy favorite to capture the award for the third consecutive season. FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. At the moment, we are still using the 2018-19 schedule because the 2019-20 version hasn. If you really think about it, most teams don't have any championship equity in a top-heavy, star-dependent league such as the NBA. Vegas consensus has them at 8. EloDiff is Team. FiveThirtyEight's MLB forecast uses a pitcher-adjusted Elo model to project the winner of every game and the chances that each team will win the World Series. The model enters the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 163-113 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Finals. KEVORK DJANSEZIAN / GETTY IMAGES. Calibration vs Accuracy Recently, I came across an article by FiveThirtyEight in which they self-evaluated their prediction models. Published Jul 4, 2022. . RealGM Forums2023 NFL Picks Accuracy Leaderboard : Overall. Teams. The primary. Forecast from. July 21, 2020. Makes total sense. -1. Design and development by Jay Boice, Reuben Fischer-Baum and Julia Wolfe. The 30 teams across the league will begin striving toward a postseason berth and NBA championship. He adds some stretch to his jumper, improves his ball. The Best NBA Players, According To RAPTOR Our ratings, updated daily, use play-by-play and player-tracking data to calculate each player’s individual plus-minus measurements and wins above replacement, which accounts for playing time. 2023 NFL season: Predicting every game, all 32 team records - Sports Illustrated. 193 vs. Nate Silver founded and was the editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. We started with Elo ratings before introducing our CARMELO player projection system, which we. FiveThirtyEight's 2022 college football predictions calculate each team's chances of winning its conference, making the playoff and winning a championship. 2021 MLB Predictions Updated after every game. FiveThirtyEight’s NBA Forecast projects the winner of each game and predicts each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the NBA finals. 6. Star trades are rare in the NBA. Check out the article below for more. Not the call to bet $100,000 over our model’s projection that the Lakers will finish ninth in the NBA’s. 4. IntroductionMy Evaluation Results. After setting a career high with a 15 percent usage rate last season with Phoenix, Bridges saw that figure rise to 19. What lies ahead for all 30 NBA teams? Here are the stars, stats and bets you need to know ahead of opening night. 2022 March Madness Predictions. 29, 2023. Welcome to the 2017-18 edition of CARMELO, 1 FiveThirtyEight’s NBA projection system. I used these predictions to create a dataset where each row shows the RAPTOR spread, Elo spread, and actual result for one NBA game. New starting second baseman Miguel Vargas had a . I compared the accuracy of FiveThirtyEight’s predictions to a baseline model that only uses the. 2. Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight delivers analysis of politics from campaign fundraising to election day and beyond. But there’s still. The bottom two teams are relegated. Statistical models by Jay Boice and Nate Silver. How this works: When a trade is made, our model updates the rosters of the teams involved and reallocates the number of minutes each player is expected to play. ”. FiveThirtyEight's soccer predictions calculate each team's chances of winning each match and the league title across <x> leagues. FiveThirtyEight predictions: Clinched playoffs, 36% East, 14% Finals. Statistical models by Nate Silver and Jay Boice. More. In losses that go into overtime — both in real life. Hot Takedown. Each All-Star Game since has. 5. FiveThirtyEight has the latest 2023 NCAA basketball tournament news throughout March Madness. “When you describe it as ‘stand. His. The history-based projections consist of a rolling average of the actual minutes played in recent games by each player, multiplied by their projected availability for today’s game. The reality: NBA refs are. To prepare for the next 1,230 games (All-Star festivities excluded), we took each player’s projected Real Plus-Minus. ): Our 2016-17 NBA Predictions follow the same methodology as our predictions from last year. Moneyline: Steelers win as +114 underdogs (bet $10 to win $21. Elissa Slotkin announced her candidacy for Michigan’s open Senate seat, and last week, Democratic Sen. com, NBA teams handed out more than $3. Wins above replacement projections are based on a combination of regular-season and playoff performances. 0 points per 100 possessions, or the equivalent of the 10th-best defense in the league. Filed under NBA. $2. FiveThirtyEight’s WNBA forecast projects the winner of each game and predicts each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the WNBA Finals. Select a WeekFiveThirtyEight’s 2019-20 NBA forecast model, code-named RAPTOR, gives the Heat a 73 percent chance of winning the Finals. Design and development by Jay Boice. For some reason, when I request the content of the html page, I get a. ConversationI am trying to evaluate the NBA game predictions on FiveThirtyEight. The 2023 NFL season is finally here. 33. 8, 2020. Ditto Paul George and Kawhi Leonard of the Clippers ranking among this season’s best duos. {"payload":{"allShortcutsEnabled":false,"fileTree":{"":{"items":[{"name":"ahca-polls","path":"ahca-polls","contentType":"directory"},{"name":"airline-safety","path. Standings. Filed under NBA. 1. It’s hard to argue any No. August 15, 2023 11:30 AMThe Lakers are 11-1 in the latest 2024 NBA Finals odds, sitting well behind the top tier of 2023-24 NBA contenders. com, Wikipedia. 1 percent from three). With fewer than one-quarter of the NBA regular season remaining, it's time for a fresh, just-out-of-the-oven batch of bold predictions. 5, 2022, at 11:22 PM. 2026. For more forecast content, listen to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast and subscribe to our YouTube channel!LeBron is currently averaging 30. FiveThirtyEight. com. Raiders. 8, 2023 The Knicks’ Winning Streak Is Over. 24, 2015. 14, 2022. At the urging of star Chris Paul, the Elam Ending was added to the 2020 NBA All-Star Game, using a 24-point fourth-quarter target score to honor the late Kobe Bryant. Season. Specifically, we get our projected records and team odds by running 50,000 simulations of the schedule. Steelers 26, Browns 22. 1) in the frontcourt, the Warriors’ newcomers 3 have combined for a collective +3. FiveThirtyEight's 2019 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of. 1. FiveThirtyEight’s NBA Forecast projects the winner of each game and predicts each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the NBA finals. It's weird, people like to say teams that were doing great and then got decimated by injuries late in the season are poised to dominate this year, but conviniently forget all the teams that were obliterated early/mid season by injuries and covid but ended healthy. Get Reggie Miller’s March Madness 2023 picks and predictions below. 7 percent of shots to be converted when. 2 defensive RAPTOR, which ranks No. All posts tagged “NBA Predictions” Oct. 2023-24 NBA Awards Watch: Who are the early favorites for MVP and Sixth Man of the Year? 3d André Snellings. Thursday afternoon’s tilt between No. Oct. 1 For a game. Post #82 » by GregOden » Tue Oct 18, 2022 7:43 am. This comes as a surprise to the FiveThirtyEight NBA Predictions model, which had Denver as an 88 percent favorite to move on. The NBA playoffs are almost here, with the play-in tournament tipping off later tonight. -4. The NBA playoffs are finally upon us, and like the 16 teams vying for the Larry O’Brien trophy, we’ve come prepared — not with basketball skills, mind you, 1 but. The x axis represents the probability that FiveThirtyEight’s model gave a given team of winning a given game, and the y axis is the percentage that a team won when given that percentage. 8, 2023. 84. Dorothy J. Daily Lines. Download forecast data. 2022-23 NBA Predictions By Jay Boice, Neil Paine and Nate. Win Title. This is basically a bet on a Giannis Antetokounmpo revenge tour, because the Bucks haven’t really done anything to revamp the rotation after losing in the first round to Miami. Statistical models by Jay Boice and Nate Silver. Statistical models by Jay Boice and Nate Silver. Once we have a projected final score we compare it to the over under line. Statistical model by Nate Silver, Jay Boice and Neil Paine. FiveThirtyEight’s WNBA forecast projects the winner of each game and predicts each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the WNBA Finals. Reuben Fischer-Baum: In terms of the betting markets, tennis Elo, like NBA and NFL, isn’t. Next >. All posts tagged “NBA Predictions” Mar. Filed under Basketball. A. The model enters Week 5 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a 82-46 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning more than $3,000. New Orleans Pelicans. For a game between two teams (A and B), we calculate Team A’s probability of winning with this formula: Pr(A) = 1 10−EloDiff 400 + 1 P r ( A) = 1 10 − E l o D i f f 400 + 1. Since FiveThirtyEight has generously made their data available on github, I was able to evaluate their NBA prediction models for the playoffs from 2016-2020, keeping in mind the points I made above (code available here). In The Virtues and Vices of Election Prediction Markets Nate Silver explains why FiveThirtyEight generally should not beat the market: “The general question of whether. The bottom team is automatically relegated, and the second-to-last team will enter a playoff against a team from the lower division to determine if it is relegated. And RAPTOR plus/minus thinks James was slightly better on a per-possession rate in 2008-09, his best career season, than Jordan was in 1990-91. Best bet: Over 51. Design and development by Jay Boice, Reuben Fischer-Baum and Julia Wolfe. Pelicans prediction: FiveThirtyEight gives the Pelicans a 68 percent chance of winning this game, a much closer spread than what we see with the Raptors and Bulls or with either of the. Our NFL forecasts are based on a simple algorithm that relies on Elo ratings, which use only a few pieces of information to rate each team and project each game. 2. 3 Added live win probabilities and men’s Elo model. This one is a straight-up falsehood, sadly perpetuated by some media members in addition to casual fans. 5) cover by winning outright. Post #1 » by bisme37 » Fri Oct 14, 2022 4:10 pm. 2023-24 Kia Season Preview: Team-by-team previews, analysis, predictions, fantasy guide, GM Survey and more. NFL NBA Megan Anderson Atlanta Hawks Los Angeles Lakers Boston Celtics Arsenal F. A couple weeks ago, while I was watching James Harden lead the Houston Rockets to a stunning overtime victory over the Golden State Warriors, I was curious to see how the highly-popular ELO and CARMELO models at Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight ranked each of the NBA’s 30 teams. 8m. m. How this works: These forecasts are based on 100,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Re: FiveThirtyEight NBA predictions for 2022-23 Post #115 » by HiRez » Wed Oct 19, 2022 5:26 pm Flash Falcon X wrote: The trio of Steph, Klay and Draymond played a whopping 11 minutes together all last regular season, yet Golden State is projected to win 4 fewer games this upcoming season compared to last season?Despite his scoring output and efficiency, FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR metric rates Thompson as the 29th-most-effective player in the playoffs among the 30 who have played at least 400 minutes.